南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251016

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - Futures Prices: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - Spot Prices: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - Base Difference: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - US Corn Market: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - Bearish Factors: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].