宁证期货今日早评-20251016

Group 1: Report Core Views - The ongoing US government shutdown and rumors of lay - offs increase the country's political turmoil. Although the dollar index is weak, which may provide some upward momentum for gold, the market is at a high level, so investors should be cautious about chasing high [1] - Natural rubber is in a weak downward trend, with the spot being relatively strong and the basis converging. After the rainfall in the producing areas eases, the supply is expected to increase significantly. The downstream tire enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term driving force is weak. However, the overall low annual output and low inventory in China limit the downside [1] - The pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province has entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will start the purchase and storage of frozen pork. At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Although the price has a short - term small rebound due to the support of second - fattening, the rebound is not sustainable, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased, but India's palm oil imports decreased in September. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4] - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The domestic new - season soybean market is stable, with price polarization in the Northeast. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [5] - The market is worried about oversupply and the impact of trade tensions on demand. The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the fundamental driving force is weak [5] - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economy has changed little, and consumer spending has declined slightly. The expectation of Fed rate cuts provides some support for precious metals. Although the weak US economy is negative for silver, the strength of gold creates conditions for short - squeezing. Silver has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high [6] - China's inflation data has rebounded, indicating continuous economic improvement, which is bearish for the medium - and long - term bond market. Due to the joint effect of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, the operation of the bond market is more difficult, and it is recommended to use a volatile mindset [7] - The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is dragged down by tariff policies, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season. The impact of downstream demand expectations and crude oil on PTA prices is significant [7] - PVC supply is at a high level, and the social inventory is on the rise. The cost support is weak in the near term, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8] - The profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are relatively stable, but the downstream orders are still weak, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly decreased, the demand is flat, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] Group 2: Specific Product Data Gold - On October 15 local time, the US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill with a vote of 51 to 44, and 60 votes were required [1] Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup - glue price is 49.65 Thai baht/kg. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,200 yuan/ton. From January - September 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [1] Pig - On October 15, the average pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province was 4.98:1, entering the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline [3] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month. India's total vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [4] Soybean - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons (6.37%) from the week of September 26, and a 14.29% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 11.01 million tons (9.26%) from the week of September 26, and a 6.17% increase year - on - year [5] Silver - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that overall economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment levels have remained stable [6] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [7] PTA - PTA capacity utilization is 76.46%. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days, with POY inventory at 14 - 23 days, FDY inventory at 12 - 22 days, and DTY inventory at 13 - 25 days [7] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. PVC capacity utilization is 82.63%, a weekly increase of 1.21%. The 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device of Jinyuyuan is expected to end maintenance this week. PVC social inventory is 97.13 million tons, a 1.84% increase month - on - month [8] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The float glass operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 11 days, a 4.9% increase month - on - month [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6,578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous day. Polypropylene capacity utilization is 77.27%, a decrease of 0.76% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 51.76%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. Polypropylene commercial inventory is 98.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.6 million tons. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins is 82 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous day [10]