中泰期货晨会纪要-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - For treasury bond futures, it is also considered that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be further loosened. The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume [14]. - In the black market, steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips. The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies; alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate, and industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range [23][26][27]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy; for sugar, consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines; for eggs, short on rallies for near - month contracts; for apples, go long on dips; for corn, buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for red dates, stay on the sidelines; for live pigs, hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical market, for crude oil, hold existing short positions; for fuel oil, its price follows that of crude oil; for plastics, expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation; for rubber, it may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound; for methanol, wait for a rebound to go long; for caustic soda, expect price fluctuations; for asphalt, it follows the price of crude oil; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term [41][42][51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry urges the US to correct its wrong actions. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices [8]. - China has achieved key breakthroughs in high - end electronic measurement instruments and filled the gap in high - end electronic design industrial software [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI rose 1% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, China's M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. The increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan [9]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment has remained stable. A Fed official suggests that the Fed should cut interest rates twice this year [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data was in line with expectations, with food and energy prices dragging down CPI. Core CPI continued to rise. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and financial data showed a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increased significantly [12]. - It is recommended to continue the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data is in line with expectations, and financial data shows a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increases significantly [14]. - It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [14]. 3.4 Black Market 3.4.1 Steel - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on actual supply and demand is expected to be small. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [16]. - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the real demand for steel downstream has improved limitedly, and the inventory of some varieties is high, which may lead to a shock or off - peak market [16]. - Steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips [17]. 3.4.2 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions [18]. - In the medium - term, the resumption of coking coal supply is hindered. The demand from steel mills for coking coal and coke is strong, but the current inventory level of downstream coking coal and coke is high, and the short - term demand support is weak [18]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the cost support of silicomanganese is stronger than that of ferrosilicon. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [20]. - The price of ferrosilicon rose significantly during the day but then fell back, mainly due to the influence of the increase in thermal coal prices on sentiment [20]. 3.4.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass industry chain is operating weakly. It is recommended to hold a bearish view on soda ash or take profits in the short - term, and stay on the sidelines for glass [21]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the new production capacity of leading enterprises is expected to be postponed. The supply of glass is affected by the decline in the market, and the inventory of the middle - stream is high [21]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous and New Materials Market 3.5.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [23]. - The inventory of aluminum is decreasing, and the spot premium is rising. The supply of alumina is in a state of high - opening and high - supply, and the inventory is increasing [23]. 3.5.2 Zinc - The spot trading of zinc in the three major domestic markets is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions [24]. - The price of zinc is affected by trade disputes and weak demand. The domestic and overseas markets have different operating logics, and there are signs of a resonance decline in global zinc prices [25]. 3.5.3 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a state of de - stocking, which supports the current price [26]. - The impact of lithium battery export controls on short - term demand is limited, and the high level of warehouse receipts has limited impact on prices [26]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to sell call options. The recent decline in the price is mainly due to the expected weakening of supply and demand [27]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase in October, but there is also an expected decline in inventory due to the dry season in the southwest, resulting in a loose balance of supply and demand [27]. 3.5.5 Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, which supports the lower space of the futures price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [28]. - The market was affected by rumors of a new cost benchmark for polysilicon on October 15, and the price rebounded due to valuation correction [28]. 3.6 Agricultural Products Market 3.6.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The upstream - downstream game is complex, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. - The price of domestic cotton is affected by the international market and the increase in supply, and the demand is uncertain [30][31]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is under pressure [32]. - The price of sugar is affected by supply and cost factors, and the new sugar production is expected to increase [32][33]. 3.6.3 Eggs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [34]. - The spot price of eggs has rebounded slightly, and the price may be affected by vegetable prices [34]. 3.6.4 Apples - Go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and the price in the western region is firm [36]. - Pay attention to the impact of continuous rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [36]. 3.6.5 Corn - Buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The spot price of corn is weak, and the new - season supply is increasing [37]. - The price of corn may be supported by the purchase of the central reserve, and attention should be paid to the harvest and grain quality in North China and the selling intention of farmers [37][38]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - Stay on the sidelines. The market price of red dates is stable, and the consumption is poor, but the opening price is expected to be high [39]. - Pay attention to the opening price of new - season red dates [39]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - Hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [39]. - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand is weak after the festivals, which drags down the price [39]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Market 3.7.1 Crude Oil - Hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, and the demand is weakening, resulting in a downward trend in the price [41]. - The price of crude oil is affected by API inventory, trade wars, and geopolitical risks, and there may be a price repair in the future [41]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows that of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is flat [42]. - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations, and the price of fuel oil is also affected [42]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak [43]. - It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short, as the current price is slightly low [43]. 3.7.4 Rubber - It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound. The supply is expected to increase, but it is affected by the NR near - month contract [44]. - The price of rubber is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut signal and the cancellation of NR warehouse receipts [44]. 3.7.5 Methanol - Wait for a rebound to go long. The main contradiction of methanol is the high inventory pressure in ports, and there are also factors such as the impact of winter gas restrictions on production [45]. - The price of methanol is affected by the arrival of Iranian goods in ports, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal process [45]. 3.7.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures is expected to fluctuate. The short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina affect the price [46]. - The spot price of caustic soda has changed, and the price of alumina and liquid chlorine also has an impact on the futures price [46]. 3.7.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations [47]. - The spot price of asphalt has declined, and the demand is in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed in October [48]. 3.7.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [51]. - The price of LPG is affected by trade wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the peak season for blending oil is over [51]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly. The overall fundamentals lack a clear driving force [50]. - The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, the supply of PTA increases, and the far - month inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [50].