铅锌日评：沪铅或有承压，沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight pattern has improved, part of the demand was released in September, there is a large pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may be under pressure [1]. - For zinc, the fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues the weak trend of strong supply and weak demand, and with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. There is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots rose 0.15% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.35% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was $1,986.00, up 0.43%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.62, down 0.08% [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but hard to fall, not yet affecting smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. For recycled lead, previously - maintained smelters are resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not evident, and dealers mainly digest inventory [1]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots fell 0.90% from the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.92% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was $2,940.50, down 0.44%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.49, down 0.48% [1]. - Fundamentals: Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, smelters mainly purchase domestic ores. In October, domestic TC may still decline. On the supply side, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increased production. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading [1].