申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - Spreads and Ratios: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - Spreads and Ratios: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - Profit Changes: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - Quantity Changes: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]