甲醇日评：做多仍需等待-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and it's necessary to wait before going long. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent driving force may come from potential supply reduction, such as Iran's gas - restriction expectation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [1]. - Spot prices in different regions: Shandong remained unchanged at 2305 yuan/ton; Guangdong rose 0.11% to 2270 yuan/ton; Shaanxi decreased 0.36% to 2072.50 yuan/ton; Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton and 2280 yuan/ton respectively; Inner Mongolia decreased 0.84% to 2060 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 1 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: Ordos Q5500 increased 0.95% to 530 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 increased 1.24% to 610 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 increased 2.10% to 607.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased 6.30 yuan/ton to 312.20 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit increased 30.20 yuan/ton to - 165.20 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased 16.49% to - 1003.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased 5.21% to 554.53 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased 9.43% to 480.20 yuan/ton; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2275 yuan/ton and closing at 2298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960, showing reduced volume and positions [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned so far, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].