中国期货每日简报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 15, equity indices rose while most CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with precious metals leading the gains. The national PPI for industrial products in September 2025 decreased by 2.3% YoY and remained flat MoM [3][5][12][15]. - The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silver, while the top three decliners are LSFO, crude oil, and glass. Among financial futures, IM increased by 1.8% and TL decreased by 0.1% [13][14][15]. - Coking coal increased by 1.0% on October 15. Its fundamentals have no prominent contradictions for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate later. Iron ore decreased by 1.5%, with limited upward space and expected short - term price fluctuations. Crude oil decreased by 1.8%, and although it may rebound under certain circumstances, it's difficult to reverse the downward trend [20][23][26][30][33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 15, equity indices rose and most CGB futures fell. Commodities had mixed performances, with precious metals leading the gains. The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe) (up 4.2% with open interest down 0.6% MoM), poly - silicon (up 3.4% with open interest down 1.6% MoM), and silver (up 2.3% with open interest up 2.2% MoM). The top three decliners are LSFO (down 1.9% with open interest up 2.3% MoM), crude oil (down 1.8% with open interest down 4.5% MoM), and glass (down 1.7% with open interest up 3.9% MoM). Among financial futures, IM increased by 1.8% and TL decreased by 0.1% [12][13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Coking Coal - On October 15, coking coal increased by 1.0% to 1151 yuan/ton. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to fluctuate later. On the supply side, most coal mines in producing areas have resumed production, but the import of Mongolian coal is affected by customs system malfunctions and port meetings, and the supply at the port is tight. On the demand side, coke output is stable with a slight decrease, downstream coking enterprises purchase based on rigid demand, and the overall inventory is at a low level [20][21][22][23]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - Iron Ore: On October 15, iron ore decreased by 1.5% to 776.5 yuan/ton. The fundamental pressure is not prominent, but macro - expectations and uncertain Sino - US trade relations limit its upward space. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly MoM, while 45 - port arrivals increased significantly. The average daily output of molten iron in the sample decreased slightly MoM, and steel mills' profit margins continued to decline slightly. Port inventory increased, and some steel mills have post - holiday replenishment plans [26][27][28][29][30]. - Crude Oil: On October 15, crude oil decreased by 1.8% to 443.7 yuan/barrel. If tariff concerns ease or geopolitical risks emerge, the price may rebound, but it's difficult to reverse the downward trend. The IEA Monthly Report lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing oversupply concerns. The global supply is in an increase phase, and later it will face crude oil inventory accumulation pressure [33][34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In September 2025, the national PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remained flat MoM. The purchasing price index for industrial producers fell by 3.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and rose by 0.1% MoM. The national CPI decreased by 0.3% YoY and rose by 0.1% MoM [39][42][43]. - In the first 8 months of this year, the manufacturing industry enjoyed nearly RMB 1.3 trillion in tax and fee cuts, exemptions, and rebates. The sales revenue of the manufacturing industry in the first three quarters increased by 4.7% YoY, accounting for 29.8% of the total sales revenue of enterprises across the country [40][43]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increment of the social financing scale was RMB 30.09 trillion, an increase of RMB 4.42 trillion compared with the same period of the previous year. At the end of September, M2 balance was RMB 335.38 trillion, up 8.4% YoY, and RMB loans increased by RMB 14.75 trillion in the first three quarters [40][43]. - The EU is reported to consider forcing Chinese companies to transfer technology to European firms, and China opposes such forced technology transfer and protectionist practices [41][43]. - By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, and 40,000 "ultra - fast combined" charging guns with power over 60kW will be built or renovated at expressway service areas [41][43][44].