中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属全部上涨-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Focus on Trump's new tariff threats and potential US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October, and a shutdown over 30 days could raise recession risks [6]. - Domestic: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress and effectiveness of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool are worth following [6]. - Asset Allocation: There's a risk of increased volatility in global major assets this week. Maintain a strategic allocation of precious metals like gold, be cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Pay attention to Trump's new tariff threats and US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting, and a long - term shutdown may increase recession risks [6]. - Domestic Macro: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool is worth following [6]. - Asset View: Global major assets may have increased volatility this week. Suggest maintaining a strategic allocation of precious metals, being cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and holding the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by tech events, the growth style is active. May experience a volatile rise with the concern of overcrowded small - cap funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Market turnover slightly declined. Expected to be volatile due to concerns about insufficient option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market remains weak. Expected to be volatile with concerns about policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. Expected to rise with volatility, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there's no upward drive. Expected to be volatile, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: There's pressure on the fundamentals, and cost support is weakening. Expected to be volatile, focusing on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - Iron Ore: Frequent macro disturbances have weakened market sentiment. Expected to be volatile, focusing on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and policy [7]. - Coke: The fundamentals have little change, and the market is volatile. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Most auctions showed price increases, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was briefly affected. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have caused a short - term decline in copper prices. Expected to be volatile, with concerns about supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policy [7]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and aluminum prices are high and volatile. Expected to rise with volatility, with concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under pressure. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and low valuations are hard to change. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on cost factors [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and high inventory, prices are falling. Expected to be volatile, focusing on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Expected to continue to be volatile, waiting for further information. Focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The market remains in low - level volatility. Focus on Sino - US trade relations [9]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment is boosted by government - guided purchases, and the price rebounds. Expected to be volatile, focusing on demand, macro factors, and weather [9].