节后产业端难?向好，宏观及政策仍有利好预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].