尿素早评：关键还是在出口-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is already at a low level, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Price) - On October 15, UR01 was 1597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or 0.19% from October 14; UR05 was 1671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.12%; UR09 was 1707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On October 15, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, 1590 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1560 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from October 14 [1]. Basis and Spread - On October 15, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 121 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from October 14; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Cost - On October 15, the anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - On October 15, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1611 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1596 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1600 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1604 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 322,686 lots [1].