华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For成材, the market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - For铝锭, the price is expected to trade in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining - end news [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - to late January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday,成材 prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] 铝锭 - Macroscopically, traders analyze Fed Chairman Powell's speech to find clues about possible future interest rate cuts during the US government shutdown. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little recently, employment is basically stable, but there are signs of weakness such as more layoffs and reduced spending by low - and middle - income families [2] - Fundamentally, the profit of alumina plants is further compressed, high - cost production capacity turns to losses and stops production. After the rainy season ends, bauxite shipments from Guinea resume, weakening the support for ore prices [3] - From October, some northern electrolytic aluminum enterprises expect an increase in the direct supply ratio of molten aluminum due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, which will keep the aluminum ingot output low and reduce the market supply of spot aluminum ingots, supporting aluminum prices from the supply side [3] - In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing sectors adjusted slightly due to the National Day holiday, in line with seasonal characteristics but with obvious internal differentiation. The operating rate of aluminum cables declined, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips dropped by 1 percentage point to 68.0%, and the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased slightly [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [3]