聚烯烃日报：供需延续弱势，聚烯烃继续走跌-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - Upstream Supply: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - Production Profit: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - Import and Export: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - PE: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - PP: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - Inter - period: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - Inter - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]