股市缩量反弹，债市扰动下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the bond market declined due to disturbances. The short - term trend of the bond market is expected to be volatile, while the stock market shows signs of improvement with the potential for policy - driven rallies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and hedging sentiment eased. The growth preference resurfaced, with power equipment, automobiles, and electronics leading the gains among primary industries. The reduction in IC positions on Wednesday exceeded the increase on Tuesday, and the discount narrowed significantly, possibly indicating concentrated short - covering of IC. The U.S. stocks stopped falling, and the domestic technology - related industries rebounded. The September social financing data showed an increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans, indicating a recovery in corporate demand. With an important meeting approaching at the end of the month, policy - boosting expectations are rising. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The implied volatility dropped significantly. The underlying market rose across the board in the afternoon. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 24.91% compared to the previous day. The proportion of bullish trading increased slightly, and the short - term trading scale of buyers did not rise. The PCR of open interest rebounded significantly, and the average absolute value of the volatility index of each variety decreased by 1.72%. Sellers were more willing to add positive - delta positions, and the put - buying options from the previous day were mainly for profit - taking or stop - loss. It is recommended to continue with the monthly covered - call strategy and limit the double - selling strategy to intraday trading [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Risk preference disturbances still exist. Most treasury bond futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts falling by 0.14%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment through open - market operations, which supported the bond market. The September inflation and social financing data were in line with market expectations, and the bond market had already priced them in. The improvement in the equity market's risk preference was negative for the bond market. In the short term, the long - end of the bond market is still greatly affected by risk preference, but the impact of tariffs may be lower than that in early April. The short - term bond market trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, look for long - end arbitrage opportunities, and appropriately focus on the steepening of the yield curve [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The actual values of China's September export annual rate, PPI annual rate, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to date were 8.3%, - 2.3%, and 30.09 trillion yuan respectively, with the export annual rate and social financing scale exceeding expectations, and the PPI annual rate in line with expectations. The data for the U.S. September non - farm payrolls change is yet to be released [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Social Financing: As of the end of September, M2 and M1 balances increased by 8.4% and 7.2% year - on - year respectively. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - New Energy: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [13]. - U.S. Finance: The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the budget deficit is smaller than last year, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio may reach 3%. A trade agreement with South Korea is imminent, and the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has normalized. The U.S. investment boom is sustainable, and the AI boom is in its early stages [14]. - Consumption Tax Refund: Starting from November 1, 2025, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping [15].