静待宏观政策明朗，基本金属震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillatory [8] - Alumina: Oscillatory [9] - Aluminum: Oscillatory in the short - term, with the central price likely to rise in the medium - term [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillatory in the short - term, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; oscillatory within a range in the medium - term [12] - Zinc: Oscillatory with a weakening trend [14] - Lead: Oscillatory [16] - Nickel: Widely oscillatory in the short - term, on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillatory [22] - Tin: Oscillatory [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in the short - to - medium term, with scrap and ore supplies tight, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals. One can continue to cautiously focus on low - buying and long - selling opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - aluminum price ratio returns above 4, one can focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so there are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1st; the US federal government has shut down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 17.2 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [7]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement reduces market risk appetite and pressures copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are low, and electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. Demand shows resilience [8]. - Outlook: Constraints on copper supply remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. In the long term, the copper price may show an upward - trending pattern, but in the short term, it is affected by US tariffs and is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On October 15th, alumina prices in various regions declined; a Shanxi alumina enterprise is undergoing a 7 - day roasting furnace maintenance, affecting about 10,000 tons of production [8][9]. - Logic: The macro sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply is still high, and the price is under pressure, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter may limit the downside [9]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On October 15th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; on October 13th, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; some companies' aluminum production increased [10]. - Logic: The macro tone is positive at home and abroad. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the central price may rise in the medium term [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On October 15th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; in September, automobile sales were strong [11][12]. - Logic: The cost is supported, supply - side production is increasing, demand is warming up, and inventory is accumulating. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the ADC12 - A00 spread is rising, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; in the medium term, supply - demand is weak, but there are raw material disruption risks, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On October 15th, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 15th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons to 16.31 tons; a mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [14]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement is negative. The supply of zinc ore has loosened in the short term, and demand is average. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [14]. - Outlook: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, demand recovery is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Affected by policies and LME zinc trends, the price is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On October 15th, the price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead ingots increased by 25 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased by 0.09 tons on October 13th; after the National Day, the supply of lead will gradually loosen [15]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply side's production is increasing, and the demand side's battery factory production is also increasing. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Outlook: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the dollar may decline. Currently in the peak consumption season, demand is high, supply is loosening, and the cost is rising slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On October 15th, LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons; Harita Nickel is implementing sustainable development measures; Antam and CATL plan to build a $6 - billion electric vehicle battery supply chain; the application process for the 2026 RKAB mining quota may be delayed [18][19]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly lower, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to use a short - term trading strategy [20]. - Outlook: With LME nickel inventory exceeding 240,000 tons, it will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 490 tons; on October 15th, the spot price in Foshan had a premium of 340 yuan/ton; a fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; on October 14th, the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21][22]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices are weakening, and chromium prices are stable. In September, stainless steel production increased. Social inventory is accumulating, and there may be over - supply pressure after the peak season [22]. - Outlook: Terminal demand is slightly disappointing, and the cost provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On October 15th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 190 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons; the average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 300 yuan/ton [22]. - Logic: During the National Day, there were supply disruptions in the tin market. Supply in Wa State, Indonesia, and Africa is tight, and domestic ore supply is also tight. Supply constraints support the tin price [23]. - Outlook: With tight ore supply, the tin price has bottom support and is expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content under this section. 3.3商品指数 - On October 15th, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2452.91, up 0.77% on the day, down 1.38% in the past 5 days, up 3.25% in the past month, and up 6.26% since the beginning of the year [151][152].