新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货成交价格低迷，盘面对罢工暂无反应-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the impact of negative factors on the decline of aluminum prices is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 15, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was 30 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 15, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,830 yuan/ton, closed at 20,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,940 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 82,102 lots, and the position was 148,539 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 71,394 tons, a change of 8,218 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 498,975 tons, a change of - 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,105 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 15, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,797 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.36%. The highest price was 2,818 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,782 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 241,190 lots, and the position was 361,466 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the decline of aluminum prices due to negative factors is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering, with the proportion of molten aluminum reaching a new high [6]. Alumina - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread [9]