农产品日报：反弹驱动不足，板块低位震荡-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market faces uncertainties due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, with new - year production increase expectations suppressing the market and weak demand. The sugar market has production uncertainties due to typhoon - affected areas, while being influenced by macro - sentiment. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and high inventory, and is affected by the macro - situation [2][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,270 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,513 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 4.077 million tons. For 2025/26, planted area is expected to be 2.138 million hectares (about 32.07 million mu), up 2.5% year - on - year; yield per mu is expected to be 125.7 kg, down 3.5% year - on - year; total production is expected to be 4.031 million tons, down 1.1% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US federal government shutdown affected data release. The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and weak demand. In China, cotton de - stocking is fast, but the pre - holiday seed cotton purchase was cautious. New cotton listing during the National Day limited the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and new - year production increase expectations may cause short - term weakness in cotton prices [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Pakistan invited bids to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar, with the possibility of a deal seemingly decreasing. The government approved a plan to import 500,000 tons of sugar to stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were flat. Brazilian sugar production increased in the first half of September, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price. In China, the peak - season sales were poor, imports were high, and new sugar cane harvest started. Typhoons affected some areas, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Typhoon - affected areas may support sugar prices, but the Sino - US trade friction may increase market volatility [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Imported wood pulp spot prices were mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [8] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. Overseas阔叶浆 mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual September transactions were poor. Global supply pressure remains, and domestic port de - stocking is slow. Demand in Europe, the US, and China is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [9] Strategy - Neutral. The tariff war and weak fundamentals may keep pulp prices in a bottom - seeking trend [10]