新世纪期货交易提示-20251016

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - Rebar: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - Stock Index Futures/Options: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Logs: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - Pulp: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Oils: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - Meal Products: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - Live Pigs: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - Rubber: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - PX: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - PTA: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - MEG: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - PR and PF: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].