Report Introduction - The report is the Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 16, 2025, written by Bian Shuyang and research assistant Kang Quangui [1][2] Price Forecast and Risk Strategy Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.53% and a historical percentile of 16.8% [3] Risk Strategy - Inventory Management for Sellers: For those with long - spot positions like planting subjects with high new - bean selling needs in autumn but facing large selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 Soybean No. 1 futures contract at a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050. Also, for the situation of concentrated listing and weakened seller bargaining power, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a 30% ratio when the price is between 30 - 50 [3] - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those with short - spot positions worried about rising raw material prices, it is advisable to mainly wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 contracts [3] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations have driven up the futures price, with the main 2601 contract breaking through the 4000 - yuan mark and the near - month 11 contract approaching it. However, the spot price has not risen in sync, leading to a weaker basis and theoretical delivery profit on the futures. Imported soybeans are currently in sufficient supply, and the support from the future shortage of imported soybeans for domestic soybeans needs time to materialize. New - grain listing pressure remains, and there is a risk of price decline above 4000 yuan. The current domestic soybean market is in the peak harvest and listing season, with ample supply and significant price pressure. Low - protein new - season soybeans are weakly priced, and prices may continue to fall. State reserve purchases are likely in a wait - and - see stage [4] 利多 Factors - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations provide emotional support for domestic soybeans - There are expectations for state reserve procurement policies - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in two - way auctions provides short - term market support [4] 利空 Factors - During the new - grain listing period, the spot price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [4] Price and Market Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 15, 2025, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan/ton with a basis of - 119; in Nenjiang, it was 3820 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133; in Jiamusi, it was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 53; and in Changchun, it was 3950 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3 [4] Futures Closing Price - On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 11 contract was 3981 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 01 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.81%; the 03 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 05 contract was 4032 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.60%; the 07 contract was 4030 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.55%; and the 09 contract was 4033 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.57% [6]
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251016
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 03:14