液化石油气日报：现货端弱势运行，宏观风险仍存-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The PG futures market shows signs of stabilization after continuous declines, but the rebound is limited. The spot prices in domestic regions generally continued to fall. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply and weak downstream demand elasticity. Market pressure persists, but potential support may come from improved chemical profits and raw material switching in cracking units. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff threats, short - term caution is advised [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices on October 15 - Shandong market: 4310 - 4370 yuan/ton [1] - Northeast market: 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton [1] - North China market: 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - East China market: 4200 - 4360 yuan/ton [1] - Yangtze River market: 4670 - 4860 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest market: 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [1] - South China market: 4498 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] November 2025 First - half Import Prices - East China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 537 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 542 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] - South China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 531 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4150 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 536 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4189 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] Market Conditions - The East China civil LPG market's mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with weak transactions and some price concessions. The mainstream transaction price of ether - post carbon four remained stable, with general demand and a cautious wait - and - see attitude [1] - The overall LPG supply - demand pattern is loose, with high exports from the Middle East and North America and potential for further growth. Downstream demand elasticity is weaker than supply due to profit factors [1] - If prices continue to fall, it may drive chemical profit repair and increased buying, forming new support. The low LPG - to - naphtha price difference may lead to raw material switching in cracking units, providing some support to the LPG market [1]