原油日报：特朗普威胁禁止进口中国UCO-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]