能源化策略日报：原油价差继续?弱，能化延续偏弱态势-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, etc. Some are rated as "oscillating", such as urea, PVC, and caustic soda [4][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical sector continues to be in a weak pattern. The crude oil market is under pressure from fundamentals and macro - disturbances, and its price direction is downward, although the rhythm is affected by various factors. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as over - supply and some varieties' capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Fed's hint of a possible October rate cut and the market's expectation of improved Sino - US relations led to a rebound in the US stock market and a significant rise in the Chinese A - share market on Wednesday. This slightly boosted the crude oil price, which had fallen to a five - month low. The reports from three major energy agencies show that the expected growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, which contradicts the large - scale production increases of OPEC + and some countries [2] 3.2 Sector Logic - Chemical products continue to be in a weak pattern. The measure of imposing port fees on each other's ships by China and the US has little impact on the supply - demand of varieties, only causing some disturbances in the trading process. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as some varieties' good benefits and capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [3] 3.3 Variety Analysis - Crude Oil: Macro factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The API data shows a significant accumulation of US crude oil inventories last week, and the global supply is in a production - increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production. The oil price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating [7] - Asphalt: The decline has slowed down, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate. The geopolitical premium has declined, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to fall [9] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillating mode. The end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, and the demand is still weak [9] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude oil to oscillate. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [10] - PX: The international oil price is in a stalemate, and PX has limited variables and follows the market to consolidate. The supply and demand are both strong, and the processing fee support is enhanced [12] - PTA: The polyester profit has expanded passively, and the sales volume has increased. However, the PTA processing fee is still under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, and the spot benefit is still under pressure [12] - Short - Fiber: The processing fee support is good, and the factory's willingness to sell goods has increased. The overall supply - demand pattern has certain support in the short term [18] - Bottle Chip: The short - term processing fee of bottle chips has improved. The upstream polyester raw materials are weakly sorted, and attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production due to profit repair [19] - Methanol: The port inventory has slightly decreased, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has low - buying value [23] - Urea: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" remains unchanged, and the enterprise inventory continues to accumulate [24] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): There are no obvious positive factors, and the supply - demand is relatively under pressure. The futures price is seeking support. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [16] - PP: The oil price is weakly operating, and PP continues to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals support is limited, and the high inventory will suppress the price [29] - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and combined with macro - disturbances, plastic oscillates weakly. The self - fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [28] - Styrene: The price has broken through the previous low and rebounded slightly after the decline. The high port inventory is the main pressure, and the price is expected to have limited rebound [15] - PVC: It has low valuation and weak expectations and oscillates. The macro - level Sino - US tariff disturbance has reappeared, and the micro - level fundamentals are under pressure, with the cost moving down [33] - Caustic Soda: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - position on the futures market should stop profit when the price is low. The short - term spot supply - demand has improved, and future inventory replenishment needs to be concerned [34] 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which can reflect the market's expectations for the future price trends of various varieties [35] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the market's delivery situation [36] - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spread data shows the price differences between different varieties, which is helpful for cross - variety arbitrage analysis [38] 3.5 Commodity Index - On October 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%; the PPI commodity index was 1321.22, up 0.27%. The energy index was 1122.04, with a daily decline of 0.82%, a 5 - day decline of 4.56%, a 1 - month decline of 6.33%, and a year - to - date decline of 8.62% [280][281]