Guoxin Securities·2025-10-16 04:07Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][45] Core Insights - The report highlights two main themes for online retail in 2025: anti-involution and instant retail [6][22] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to see a significant reduction in investment from various platforms, leading to a continued divergence in GMV performance [25][30] Summary by Sections 1. Online Retail Themes - The anti-involution theme focuses on reducing burdens for small and medium-sized merchants, with platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin implementing lower commission rates [6][10] - Instant retail is characterized by a need for long-term investment and is currently facing losses across various platforms [17][20] 2. Double 11 Preview - Investment for Double 11 is expected to shrink significantly, with GMV performance anticipated to diverge among platforms [25][30] - Major platforms are extending their promotional cycles, with new entrants like Taobao Flash Sale and Xiaohongshu participating for the first time [31][34] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Alibaba and Kuaishou for their rapid development in AI-related second curve opportunities, while Pinduoduo is noted for its long-term competitive advantages despite short-term challenges [5][45]