信贷社融同步降温，货币宽松空间打开：金融数据速评（2025.9）

Credit and Financing Trends - New loans in September amounted to 1.29 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion RMB, with an average monthly decline of 3.067 billion RMB in Q3 compared to H1[2] - In September, new household loans totaled 389 billion RMB, down 111 billion RMB year-on-year, with short-term loans decreasing by 127.9 billion RMB[2] - New corporate medium to long-term loans reached 910 billion RMB, a slight year-on-year decrease of 50 billion RMB, indicating a stable growth trend amidst rising uncertainties in US-China trade relations[2] Social Financing and Monetary Policy - In September, total social financing reached 3.53 trillion RMB, but still saw a year-on-year decrease of 233.5 billion RMB due to a high base effect from the previous year[3] - New government bond financing was 1.19 trillion RMB, down 345.7 billion RMB year-on-year, reflecting a significant drop against last year's issuance peak[3] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4% in September, while M1 surged by 1.2 percentage points to 7.2%[3] Economic Outlook and Risks - The divergence in credit and social financing remains unaddressed, with the real estate market still not bottoming out and local government debt pressures persisting[4] - The upcoming end of the second round of tariff easing in mid-November adds to the uncertainty in US-China trade, necessitating effective domestic demand stimulation[4] - A potential small interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize real estate market expectations and boost durable consumption[4]