光大期货能化商品日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives a "volatile" view for each individual energy and chemical product, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to move downwards in a volatile manner due to weakening demand expectations under macro - level disturbances, such as trade tensions and inventory changes [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur in the short term, but both are expected to be volatile and weak due to Trump's new round of tariff pressure [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with a smaller decline compared to crude oil and fuel oil, considering factors like inventory and production [2]. - Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price stops when costs decline and product profits are restored [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation, including factors like export volume decline and inventory changes [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. One can consider strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, and month - to - month positive spreads [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak as fundamental drivers are not strong and crude oil prices are falling [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak due to high supply, slow domestic demand, and weak export prospects [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.43 to $58.27 per barrel, a 0.73% decline; Brent 12 - month contract closed down $0.48 to $61.91 per barrel, a 0.77% decline; SC2511 closed at 440.1 yuan/barrel, down 3.1 yuan/barrel, a 0.70% decline. API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.4 million barrels, and geopolitical events and trade tensions may further weaken demand expectations [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.14% at 2,683 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2512 closed down 1.9% at 3,155 yuan/ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur market is relatively firm. High and low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 3,250 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 33.63%, up 0.04% month - on - month; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 28.70%, up 2.23% month - on - month; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 42.77%, up 4.47% month - on - month. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; EG2601 closed at 4,057 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The polyester chain price is weakly volatile, and it follows crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of price stops when costs decline and product profits are restored [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 rose 50 yuan/ton to 14,895 yuan/ton; the NR main contract rose 245 yuan/ton to 12,235 yuan/ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 115 yuan/ton to 10,895 yuan/ton. In the first 9 months of 2025, Cambodia's latex export volume decreased by 11.4% year - on - year. The rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,317 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2,065 yuan/ton. The domestic supply has recovered recently, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production. One can consider strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, and month - to - month positive spreads [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,500 - 6,670 yuan/ton. The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream orders in October still have support but the marginal increase will gradually decline. The polyolefin price is expected to be weak [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, the East China PVC market price was mainly stable. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The PVC price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the historical quantiles of the latest basis rates [8]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.4 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 978,000 barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.8 million barrels [11]. - The UK took action against two major Russian oil companies and 51 "shadow fleet" oil tankers, which may lead to more Russian oil leaving the global market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It provides the basis charts of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, and European line container shipping [45] - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, and BU/SC ratio [61] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report provides the production profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]