集运日报：中国制裁韩造船商，中美贸易摩擦阴晴不定，盘面或保持震荡，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market may remain volatile due to China's sanctions on South Korean shipbuilders and the uncertain Sino - US trade friction. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [6]. - The overall atmosphere is still bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6]. 3. Directory Summaries SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [4]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [4]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1160.42 points on October 10, up 45.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [4]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points on October 10, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased. The main contract on October 10, 2025, closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [6]. - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [7]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - Intra - day opening limit: The intra - day opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7]. Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the cease - fire in the Israel - Hamas conflict. Israel's military radio reported that the Israeli Defense Forces would withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" soon, and the cease - fire agreement had taken effect. However, other media reported that Israeli attacks on multiple areas in Gaza continued. Hamas senior official Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, stating that "the war in Gaza is over" [8].