社融回落符合预期，存款搬家节奏放缓：——2025年9月金融数据点评

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 3.53 trillion, a decrease of CNY 229.7 billion year-on-year, which was below market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, a decrease of CNY 300 billion year-on-year[4] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in RMB loans in September was CNY 1.29 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3 billion, indicating weak credit growth[4] - Resident deposits increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.53 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the "moving house" trend of deposits[5] - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points[5] Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The high base effect from last year's government bond issuance continues to pressure social financing growth, with a risk of sustained pressure if no new fiscal policies are introduced[9] - The demand for credit is expected to recover with the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated fiscal spending[14] - The significant increase in resident deposits in September may be linked to a slowdown in the "money-making effect" from the stock market's high volatility[14]