中辉期货豆粕日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading strategies for each [1]. - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a short - term weak consolidation trend, with limited short - term fluctuations due to the support of Sino - US trade tariffs [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal and is short - term bearish [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillating market, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to have a short - term oscillating market, and its upward movement depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a weak oscillating market in the ICE market, and short - term rebound selling is recommended [1][12]. - Jujube is expected to face pressure after the new fruit is launched, and short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][14]. - Live pigs are expected to have a large - scale bottom - seeking oscillating market. Short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts and holding mid - term reverse spreads are recommended [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.52% from the previous day [2]. - Spot price: The national average price was 3018.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or - 0.06% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70.70 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 765.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 45.85 million tons [3]. - Market situation: The harvest and listing of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and the slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall lead to a lack of bullish drivers. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide short - term support [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Spot price: The national average price was 2524.21 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 million tons [6]. - Market situation: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 9322 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [7]. - Spot price: The national average price was 9310 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.64% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons [8]. - Market situation: The price competition of US soybean oil and the decent export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of this month lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It is expected to have a high - level oscillating market [1][8]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [9]. - Spot price: The CCIndex (3218B) was 14674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan or - 0.55% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory: The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - Market situation: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the support from India's MSP import tariff, and the pressure from un - priced buy orders and weak demand lead to a weak oscillating market [1][12]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - Spot price: The retail cash price remained stable [13]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, higher than the same period last year [14]. - Market situation: The expected production combined with the carry - over inventory will bring pressure after the new fruit is launched. Short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation [1][14]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2511 closed at 11400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.44% from the previous day [15]. - Spot price: The national average price of live pigs was 11260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [15]. - Inventory: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 56.61 million heads; the national inventory of fertile sows was 4038 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4 million heads [15]. - Market situation: After the continuous decline of live pigs, the resistance of the breeding side has increased. However, the supply pressure in the future market is still strong, and the reduction of fertile sows benefits the far - month contracts [1][17].