贵金属数据日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Price Spreads/Ratios: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].