国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver is likely to experience a pull - back after a rally as spot contradictions ease [2][5]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories [2][9]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state [2][12]. - Lead price rebounds are restricted by increasing inventories [2][15]. - The price trend of tin is subject to macro - economic influences [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a consolidation phase; alumina's profit margins are being compressed; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level as macro - sentiment turns bearish; stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost at the bottom limiting downward flexibility [2][24]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to continue its short - term range - bound movement with a firm spot performance [2][27]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend; polysilicon's futures are showing strength and investors should focus on the content of today's meeting [2][31][32]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation [2][36]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may experience a slight correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][39]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations with cost providing bottom support [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations with expectations fluctuating [2][47][48]. - Log prices are oscillating repeatedly [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Data: For gold, the closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 960.34 with a daily increase of 2.27%, and the night - session closing price was 962.08 with a night - session increase of 1.39%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 11966 with a daily increase of 3.76%, and the night - session closing price was 12138.00 with a night - session increase of 3.97% [5]. - Inventory Changes: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1 to 1,022.60, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 310 to 15,422.61. SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,916 to 75,099 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 64,360 to 39,660,680 troy ounces. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32,643 to 1,030,429 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 4,559,793 to 515,632,550 troy ounces [5]. - Macro and Industry News: China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [5][8]. Copper - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85260 with a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The closing price of LME copper 3M was 10,576 with a daily decrease of 0.08% [9]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE copper inventory increased by 8,236 to 44,531 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons [9]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold and silver, China's macro - economic data showed positive trends. In the industry, the investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months, and Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's copper ore imports in September were 258.7 million tons, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 48.5 million tons [9][11]. Zinc - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22015, down 0.92%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2949, down 2.09% [12]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7172 to 65666 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 to 38350 tons [12]. - News: The US Treasury Secretary signaled a relaxation, and both sides' working levels maintained communication. China restated its stance on the tariff war [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17110, up 0.35%; the closing price of LME lead 3M was 1977, down 0.83% [15]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE lead inventory increased by 1302 to 32007 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 8225 to 254775 tons [15]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, China's macro - economic data and the US economic situation from the Fed's Beige Book were reported [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 281,710, up 0.46%; the closing price of LME tin 3M was 35,380, up 0.31% [17]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE tin inventory increased by 50 to 5,677 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 190 to 2,575 tons [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The same set of macro - economic news about China and the US was reported [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20910, and the closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2745. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2797, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20410 [21]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 64.20 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.90 million tons [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's CPI and PPI data showed positive trends, and new social financing and loan data were also released [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560 [24]. - Industry News: An Indonesian nickel mining company's over 148 - hectare mining area was taken over; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; some Indonesian mining companies were sanctioned; new regulations on mining plans were issued; and Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China [24][25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,720, and the closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,940 [28]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. The government issued an action plan for the "three - year doubling" of electric vehicle charging facilities, and China's power battery production, sales, and exports showed growth [29][30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,865 [32]. - Inventory Changes: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 54.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.0 million tons [32]. - Macro and Industry News: The results of Xinjiang's 2025 incremental new - energy project mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [32]. Iron Ore - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 776.5 with a daily decrease of 0.70% [36]. - Macro and Industry News: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [37]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 with a daily decrease of 0.85%, and the closing price of HC2601 was 3,212 with a daily decrease of 0.86% [39]. - Industry News: In early October, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and steel export and import data in August were also reported [39][41]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5376, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5746 [44]. - Industry News: Market quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were released, and a large steel mill's tender inquiries for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were reported [44]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Trading Data: The closing price of JM2601 was 1151 with a daily decrease of 0.2%, and the closing price of J2601 was 1642 with a daily decrease of 0.8% [48]. - Macro and Industry News: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [49]. Log - The price of logs is oscillating repeatedly, but no detailed price or trading data are provided [2][50].