Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Iron Ore: Short-term participation [1][7] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - Silicomanganese: Weak rebound, cautious about shorting [1][17] - Ferrosilicon: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][17] 2. Core Views - Rebar: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream demand for construction steel is still weak, and real estate and infrastructure continue to drag, with limited supply-demand driving forces, high overall steel inventory, and rising risks of contradictions under high hot metal production, so it will run weakly [1][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: The apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased, generally in line with seasonal performance. The overall steel demand is still weak, with high inventory levels and a lack of continuous upward drivers on the supply-demand side, so it will run weakly in the short-term range [1][5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are neutral to strong. After the holiday, the inventory of downstream finished products increased instead of decreasing, increasing concerns about industrial negative feedback. Steel mills' profits are significantly compressed, production enthusiasm is gradually declining, and ore prices will run weakly following steel prices [1][6] - Coke: The second round of spot price increase was delayed, with obvious game between coke and steel enterprises. Coke enterprises' profits are average, and spot production is relatively stable. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will run weakly in the range following coking coal [1][10] - Coking Coal: There is an expectation of an increase in overall coal mine production, and imports are expected to remain high, so the supply margin will continue to improve. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand tightness has improved, but there may still be disturbances on the supply side later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][13] - Silicomanganese: The supply in the production area decreased slightly but the absolute value is still high, and the inventory continued to increase this period. The inquiry price for the silicon manganese tender of a landmark steel mill in October was 5,750 yuan/ton, lower than market expectations. In the short term, the cost side still supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited, so be cautious about shorting [1][16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply in the production area is relatively stable, inventory has increased significantly, the steel tender progress in October is slow, and the market is mostly waiting and seeing. There is no short-term upward driving force, so wait and see [1][16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar 01 is at 3,034 with a decline of 27; Rebar 05 is at 3,090 with a decline of 24; Rebar 10 is at 2,950 with a decline of 20. Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3,212 with a decline of 29; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is at 3,223 with a decline of 25; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is at 3,610 with an increase of 168 [2] - Spot Price: Tangshan billet is at 2,920 with a decline of 10; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3,080 with an increase of 10; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3,190 with a decline of 20; etc. Hot-rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3,200 with a decline of 20; Hot-rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3,280 with a decline of 10; etc [2] - Basis and Spread: For example, the basis of Rebar 01 in Shanghai is 156 with an increase of 7; the spread of RB 10 - 01 is -84 with an increase of 7; the spread of hot-rolled coil - rebar in Shanghai is 90 with an increase of 10 [2] Iron Ore - View: The fundamentals are neutral to strong, but due to the increase in downstream finished product inventory after the holiday and the compression of steel mills' profits, the ore price will run weakly following the steel price [6] Coke - Price and Data: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1,642.0 with a decline of 12.5; the 01 basis is -115 with an increase of 23.3. The full - sample independent coke enterprise capacity utilization rate is 96, the 247 - steel mill average daily hot metal production is 241.5 with a decline of 0.3, etc [9] - View: The second - round price increase was delayed, with stable production and relatively balanced supply and demand, running weakly following coking coal [10] Coking Coal - Price and Data: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1,151.0 with a decline of 2.5; the 01 basis is 228 with an increase of 2.5. The sample coal washing plant's starting rate is 61.5 with a decline of 0.8, etc [12] - View: There is an expectation of supply improvement, but there may be later disturbances, running in a range [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Information: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5,746 with an increase of 8; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5,352 with an increase of 30. The spot price of silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 with an increase of 30; the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia is 5,280 with an increase of 30 [15] - Data: The silicon manganese enterprise starting rate is 70 with a decline of 0.99; the 187 - silicon manganese enterprise output is 204,225 tons with a decline of 2,205 tons; the 60 - ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,030 with an increase of 3,800 [15] - View: Manganese silicon has limited upward driving force but cost support; Ferrosilicon has no short - term upward driving force and the market is waiting and seeing [16][17]
中辉黑色观点-20251016
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-16 06:08