聚酯数据日报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is experiencing a decline due to falling costs, sufficient spot supply, poor downstream polyester filament sales, and weak market confidence. The spot basis has weakened. [2] - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures are oscillating in a low - range. The spot price in Zhangjiagang has minor adjustments, and the basis negotiation has slightly weakened. [2] - With the approaching end of the polyester peak season and the weakening of the crude oil fundamentals, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel on October 14, 2025, to 443.7 yuan/barrel on October 15, 2025, a decrease of 4.90 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA - SC spread increased from 1180.0 yuan to 1197.6 yuan, a rise of 17.61 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3620 to 1.3714, an increase of 0.0095. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 779 to 787, a rise of 8; PX - naphtha spread increased from 212 to 234, a rise of 22. [2] - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4440 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4380 yuan/ton to 4325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton. [2] - PTA现货加工费 dropped from 188.2 yuan/ton to 106.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.3 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 dropped from 263.2 yuan/ton to 203.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59.3 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4061 yuan/ton to 4057 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (106.93) yuan/ton to (107.12) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG内盘 dropped from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31.0. [2] - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6520; POY现金流 increased from 137 to 194, a rise of 57.0. [2] - FDY150D/96F dropped from 6710 to 6670, a decrease of 40.0; FDY现金流 increased from (173) to (156), an increase of 17.0. [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7760; DTY现金流 increased from 177 to 234, a rise of 57.0. [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 46% to 53%, a rise of 7%. [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10; 涤短现金流 increased from 352 to 399, a rise of 47.0. [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 52%, a rise of 8%. [2] - 半光切片 dropped from 5550 to 5500, a decrease of 50.0; 切片现金流 increased from 67 to 74, a rise of 7.0. [2] - 切片产销 increased from 80% to 129%, a rise of 49%. [2] Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 decreased from 86.21% to 84.62%, a decrease of 1.59%. [2] - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 77.58%. [2] - MEG开工率 increased from 64.06% to 164.06%, a rise of 100.00%. [2] - 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 89.38%. [2] Industry Background and Future Impact - A new cracking ethylene plant in a Shandong refinery was put into operation in mid - September, involving a pure benzene production capacity of about 230,000 tons/year, toluene 130,000 tons/year, xylene 60,000 tons/year, 1.5 million tons of ethylene, and a supporting 800,000 - ton EG is expected to be put into operation in October. [2] - The spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from 88 US dollars/ton last week to 85 US dollars/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to 132 US dollars, continuing to support the short - process profit of PX. [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window expanded to 185 US dollars, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotation inspections, resulting in a decline in domestic PTA production. [2] - The ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports remains at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are still limited, the overseas ethylene glycol imports are expected to decline, and the domestic plant commissioning is putting continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant has increased its load after operating at a low load last week. [2]