固收点评：存款活化进行时

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline moderately, the supporting effect of government bonds weakened, and medium - and long - term corporate loans and short - term household loans remained under pressure. However, there were also structural improvements, such as reduced bill padding, better year - on - year performance of medium - and long - term household loans, and increased capital activation [1][18]. - For the bond market, the data of structural repair has not yet exerted obvious pressure, but the supporting strength is also relatively limited. The market trend may depend more on institutional behavior and marginal changes in liquidity. Attention should be paid to the impact of deposit currentization and non - bank deposit trends on the micro - structure of bank liabilities, which may amplify the instability of liabilities and periodic frictions in the money market, so caution is still needed [1][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Social Financing Growth Rate Continues to Decline Slightly, and Corporate Bonds Perform Well - In September, the newly added social financing was 353.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.97 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month; the social financing growth rate (excluding government bonds) was 5.9%, a 0.002 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [7]. - The growth rate of social financing stock continued to decline slightly, and the contribution of government bonds was negative. Due to the high - base effect of government bond issuance last August, its driving effect on social financing was limited. Without the early use of debt - resolution quotas in the fourth quarter, the social financing growth rate may continue to decline this year [2][7]. - At the end of the quarter, there was credit padding, and the year - on - year increase continued to be lower. The bill interest rate rose slowly during the month, but the padding intensity in traditional large - credit months may be relatively limited. The time - point effect was prominent in the first half of this year, but weakened in the third quarter [2][7]. - Corporate bonds showed a bright year - on - year performance. Although the overall yield to maturity of corporate bonds increased in September, it may have benefited from policy support for science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds, boosting corporate financing willingness [2][7]. 3.2 Medium - and Long - Term Household Loans Recover - In September, the newly added RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. Short - term household loans decreased by 12.79 billion yuan year - on - year, medium - and long - term household loans increased by 2 billion yuan year - on - year, short - term corporate loans increased by 25 billion yuan year - on - year, medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, bill financing decreased by 47.12 billion yuan year - on - year, and non - bank loans decreased by 3.56 billion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - Medium - and long - term corporate loans still faced pressure. In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and sub - items such as new orders, new export orders, and production all rebounded, indicating improved demand. Affected by credit padding at the end of the quarter, the BCI corporate financing environment index and bill interest rate both increased. However, with the intensive implementation of "anti - involution" policies, the production arrangements and capital expenditure willingness of some enterprises may be cautious, suppressing financing demand. If the investment progress of new policy - based financial instruments accelerates, it is expected to boost credit and support medium - and long - term corporate loans [3][10]. - Short - term corporate loans continued to increase year - on - year in September. On the one hand, it may have benefited from the improvement in business prosperity, increasing the demand for short - term capital turnover. On the other hand, since May, short - term corporate loans have shown a bright year - on - year performance, with positive growth in all months except July, which may be supported by the expanded structural monetary policy tools at the beginning of May [3][10]. - Household credit performance was polarized, with medium - and long - term loans improving and short - term loans under pressure. The performance of commercial housing transactions improved slightly in September, which may have supported medium - and long - term household loans. Short - term loans still faced some pressure. Although the loan interest subsidy policy was implemented in September, its effect on boosting household leverage willingness needs further observation [3][11]. 3.3 The Gap between M2 and M1 Narrows to a New Low - M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the gap between them narrowed. In September, RMB deposits were 221 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 153 billion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 76 billion yuan year - on - year, non - financial enterprise deposits increased by 14.94 billion yuan year - on - year, fiscal deposits decreased by 60.42 billion yuan year - on - year, and non - bank deposits decreased by 197 billion yuan year - on - year [16]. - The gap between M2 and M1 further narrowed to a new low, reflecting the continuous enhancement of capital activation. Driven by the improvement of market risk appetite and the profit - making effect of the equity market, current deposits increased [4][16]. - Affected by the high - base effect of the stock market's "924" market last year, non - bank deposits decreased more year - on - year, and household deposits increased more year - on - year. However, the transfer of household deposits is not over. The equity market still attracts funds. With the maturity of high - interest time deposits in the fourth quarter, some funds may flow to asset management products or the stock market [4][16]. - In the future, the trends of deposit currentization and non - bank deposit will continue, which may lead to marginal changes in the micro - structure of bank liabilities, further amplifying the instability of liabilities. As a result, the bank system's dependence on central bank liquidity injection may increase, and periodic frictions in the money market will also intensify [4][16].