日度策略：工业硅延续空头思路-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Copper: Bullish [4] - Aluminum: Bullish, Alumina: Bearish [4] - Nickel: Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [5] - Industrial Silicon: Sideways [5] - Steel (Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Cautiously Bearish [5][6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Soda Ash: Cautiously Bearish, Glass: Sideways [6] - Crude Oil: Sideways [8] - Methanol: Bullish [2][8] - Polyolefins: Bearish [8] - Cotton: Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Sideways [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Equity Index: Despite pre - holiday caution, the upward drive remains unchanged due to domestic economic recovery and the attractiveness of A - shares in global asset allocation [1] - Treasury Bonds: Market concerns persist, and the risk of long - end adjustment has not subsided, affected by the relatively optimistic outlook for the equity market [1] - Precious Metals: The US economic resilience and potential Fed rate cuts support the bullish outlook for gold and silver, although there are risks such as government shutdown and geopolitical issues [4] - Non - ferrous Metals: Supply - side constraints and policy factors influence the price trends of copper, aluminum, and nickel, with different outlooks for each metal [4] - Mineral Resources: The supply - demand balance, production capacity, and policy factors determine the price trends of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel, coking coal, coke, soda ash, and glass [5][6] - Energy: The supply - demand relationship, geopolitical factors, and production trends affect the price trends of crude oil, methanol, and polyolefins [8] - Agricultural Products: Supply pressure and demand recovery speed impact the price trends of cotton, while supply and demand factors support the price of natural rubber [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index and Bonds - Equity Index: Last week, the A - share market was volatile at a high level, with the ChiNext Plate remaining hot. The trading volume decreased to about 2.17 trillion yuan. Domestically, industrial profits improved, and overseas, the Fed's rate - cut uncertainty increased. The equity index is expected to maintain a long - term bullish trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market was weak in the first half of last week and stabilized in the second half. Market concerns remain, and the long - end adjustment risk is still significant due to the relatively optimistic equity market outlook [1] 3.2 Metals - Precious Metals: Gold's long - term bullish logic remains clear, and silver prices are accelerating upward due to better - than - expected US economic data and increased lease rates [4] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, while aluminum has support from supply constraints, and alumina is bearish due to supply surplus. Nickel prices have support at the bottom [4] 3.3 Mineral Resources - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand is strong, and the price is expected to remain sideways before the National Day due to potential resource - end disturbances [5] - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to be weak and sideways [5] - Steel: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to weak demand and potential inventory accumulation during the holiday [5][6] - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices are under pressure due to the weakening of downstream procurement demand [6] - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash supply is likely to increase, and the price is expected to be bearish. Glass supply - demand is balanced, and the price is sensitive to policy [6] 3.4 Energy - Crude Oil: The fundamental driving force is weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling at high prices due to OPEC+ production increase and weak demand [8] - Methanol: New long positions can be entered due to the significant decrease in overseas plant operating rates [2][8] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure will increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to fall [8] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is under pressure due to strong supply expectations and insufficient demand recovery [8] - Natural Rubber: The supply disturbance weakens, and the demand remains stable, with support at the bottom [8] 3.6 Specific Strategies - Sell the put option NI2512P120000 on Shanghai Nickel and hold it [2] - Hold the previous short position on Industrial Silicon SI2511 [2] - Enter new long positions on Methanol MA601 [2]