螺纹钢：去库存压力大

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply of rebar is shrinking, demand is weak, inventory depletion pressure is high, and market sentiment has weakened under the background of trade frictions. The rebar price is likely to fall rather than rise, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the future. Attention should be paid to demand performance [6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price Performance - After a brief rebound in mid - September, the rebar futures price weakened again. Before the National Day holiday, the main contract fell below the 3,100 yuan/ton mark, hitting a new low. The spot price also remained weak at a low level [2] Macro - economic Impact - On October 10, Eastern Time, the US announced new tariffs and export controls on China, which led to risk - averse trading in the market. Although the direct impact on the black industry is limited, if the trade friction escalates, it may impact China's indirect steel exports and put pressure on construction steel prices. However, China may introduce more favorable policies to support black metal prices [3] Inventory Status - As of the week of October 10, the total rebar inventory was 6.5965 million tons, an increase of 574,000 tons during the National Day holiday. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 4.518, significantly higher than last year. The inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 49.56% and 154.68% year - on - year respectively. The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand [4] Supply and Demand Situation - The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the output in the latest week at 2.034 million tons. The output of both long - and short - process steel mills decreased. The profitability of steel mills was poor, forcing them to cut production. The demand for rebar remained weak, with the apparent demand in the latest week at 1.46 million tons, at a low level in the past five years. Cement and concrete shipments also indicated weak construction demand [4] Cost Support - Raw material prices were relatively strong. The profitability of steel mills has been declining. Iron ore and coking coal prices were strong, supporting high steel production costs. The high iron - water cost provided strong support for steel prices. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was at a high level this year [5]