格林大华期货研究院专题报告：深入东北主产区看‘新季玉米上市季’产业全景

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market this year is expected to be relatively stable with limited price fluctuations. The lower bound of the price range is supported by planting costs and farmers' selling sentiment, while the upper bound is determined by downstream inventory - building sentiment, grain substitution scale, and policy - related grain auction rhythm and intensity. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak before November; in the medium term, the decline is limited; in the long term, the upward potential is also limited [8][9] - The corn industry chain has a higher acceptance and more proficient use of corn futures and derivatives for risk management [10][11][12] - For corn futures, the short - term logic is about new - grain supply pressure and cost support; the medium - term is about new - season drivers and wide - range trading; the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation. The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [13][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New and Old Corn Alternation: Focus on New - Season Corn - New - season corn in Heilongjiang is expected to have a stable and increasing yield this year, with an increase in single - yield and better quality compared to last year [4] - The corn planting cost in Heilongjiang has decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in land rent. The estimated new - grain planting cost at the port is about 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [5] - The opening price of new - season corn in Heilongjiang has shown a high - opening and low - going trend. The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises are in a passive inventory - building stage. Some farmers will start to hold back if the price is too low [7] 2. Current Situation and Outlook of the Corn Market - The corn market price has shown a trend of rising first and then falling this year, with a wide - range operation. The international supply is under pressure, but the impact of imports on the domestic market is small. Domestic new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the supply - demand gap depends on wheat substitution and policy - related grain sources. The demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries is weak [8] - The future corn market is expected to be relatively stable, with price fluctuations mainly affected by factors such as planting costs, farmers' selling sentiment, downstream inventory - building, grain substitution, and policy - related grain auctions [9] 3. Participation of Enterprises in Corn Futures and Derivatives - The corn industry chain has a high recognition of the price - discovery and hedging functions of corn futures. Enterprises use pricing models such as basis + fixed price, and the acceptance and use of basis pricing are relatively common [10][11] - All links in the corn industry chain have improved their acceptance and proficiency in using corn futures and derivatives for risk management, such as upstream farmers using hedging and insurance + futures, and downstream enterprises using selling hedging [11][12] 4. Corn Futures Views and Operation Suggestions - The short - term market logic is about new - grain supply pressure and the impact of bad weather in North China. The medium - term is about new - season drivers, and the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation [13] - The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach, pay attention to low - buying opportunities around 2100 and below for the 2601 contract, and hold long positions lightly. The first pressure level is 2140, and the second is 2150 [14]