矿难与宏观因素均未消退，铜价当前仍可积极看待

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Short-term copper prices may continue to operate strongly above the 82,000-point level. Supply-side disruptions in the mining sector and the mismatch in the release rhythm of smelting capacity, combined with Aurubis raising the European long-term premium to $315 per ton, support the downside space. However, the weakness in traditional demand sectors, the increase in global inventories, and the significant narrowing of the LME basis suppress the upside momentum. At the macro level, the expected Fed policy and dollar fluctuations may intensify price volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - Copper Futures Market Data Changes: On October 14, the LME copper price was reported at $10,584.5 per ton, a 2.01% decline from the previous day, continuing the recent high-level correction trend. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped significantly from $226.78 per ton to $54.87 per ton. The spot premium and copper discount narrowed to 100 yuan per ton, and the flat copper discount also shrank to 20 yuan per ton. The LME copper open interest slightly increased by 70 lots to 323,147 lots on October 14, but overall capital flow was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the open interests of other metals such as aluminum, lead, and zinc all decreased to varying degrees [1][2]. - Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Global copper mine supply disturbances have intensified. Codelco's August production dropped sharply to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced a 2.5% year-on-year reduction in copper production and a 25% reduction in concentrate processing volume in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, further intensifying the expectation of tight supply. Domestically, the expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous' copper anode slime treatment system and the standardization renovation of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine may improve long-term smelting efficiency, but the short-term actual increase is limited [3]. - Demand Side: The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate, supporting the resilience of copper consumption, but the performance of traditional sectors was differentiated. The brass rod market was affected by the sharp fluctuations in copper prices, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. Enterprise orders were mainly long-term orders. The demand potential in the power and energy storage fields remained to be released. SMM spot data showed that downstream buying interest was weak, and both the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were below the neutral level [4]. - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories continued to accumulate. The LME inventory increased to 36,295 tons on October 14, the COMEX inventory rose to 342,000 short tons, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 138,800 tons but remained at a high level for the year. The inventory pressure highlighted the market's concern about the loose future supply and demand [5]. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 85,590 | 86,070 | 85,180 | -480 | -0.56% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Premium Copper | 130 | 100 | 150 | 30 | 30.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Flat Copper | 70 | 20 | 45 | 50 | 250.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Wet - Process Copper | 0 | -45 | -45 | 45 | 100.00% | Yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | 28 | 55 | 227 | -27 | -49.08% | Dollar/ton | | SHFE Price | 85,370 | 85,320 | 84,900 | 50 | 0.06% | Yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,576 | 10,585 | 10,802 | -9 | -0.08% | Dollar/ton | | LME Inventory | 44,531 | 36,295 | 32,890 | 8,236 | 22.69% | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 138,350 | 138,800 | 139,350 | -450 | -0.32% | Tons | | COMEX Inventory | 343,235 | 342,280 | 340,875 | 955 | 0.28% | Short tons | [8] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 15, the pre - approval publicity of the environmental impact report of the upgrade, renovation, and expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.'s copper anode slime treatment system was announced. The project will expand the treatment scale of copper anode slime (dry basis) from 5,000 tons per year to 12,000 tons per year [9]. - On October 14, the on - site standardization renovation of the - 310m middle section hole bottom of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine officially started, which will be carried out in three stages [9]. - On October 10, Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine [9]. - On October 9, Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced production expectations for the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year. PPC expects a 2.5% year - on - year decline in copper production, and Mitsubishi Materials will reduce the concentrate processing volume of the Onahama Smelter by about 25% [10]. - On October 9, Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [10].