原油库存压力叠加地缘降温，中长期油价或继续下探

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market is gradually realizing the "weak reality" market expectation. Short - term logic is dominated by negative factors, with low - level fluctuations expected for short - term crude oil prices. SC is weaker than the external market due to domestic warehouse receipt pressure and weak demand. If OPEC+ further signals an increase in production and US inventories continue to accumulate, the oil price center may continue to decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On October 15, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel to 443.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline, showing a five - day consecutive decline. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 58.59 dollars/barrel and 62.28 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 0.54 dollars/barrel to 0, and the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.23 dollars/barrel to 3.69 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened from - 1.5 yuan/barrel to - 3.8 yuan/barrel, indicating concerns about future supply pressure. Crude oil - related warehouse receipts remained unchanged, suggesting no significant change in short - term delivery willingness [2]. - Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: - Supply: Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars, indicating continued production recovery. Pemex in Mexico reached a salary - increase agreement with the union, potentially reducing production interruption risks. However, UK sanctions on Russian oil companies may intensify geopolitical supply disruptions [3]. - Demand: US API data showed an unexpected 2.99 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory (expected a decrease of 0.838 million barrels), reflecting weak terminal fuel demand. Refined oil inventory decreased more than expected (- 4.79 million barrels) due to industrial demand support. India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil may suppress Asian market sentiment in the short term, but actual implementation will take time [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since February 2025, and Cushing's inventory pressure rose, indicating a loose supply - demand situation in the US. China's SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.4 million barrels, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in the Asian market [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: - Futures Prices: On October 15, 2025, the SC price dropped to 443.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline; WTI dropped to 58.30 dollars/barrel, a 0.49% decline; Brent rose to 62.47 dollars/barrel, a 0.31% increase. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged; Brent, Dubai, and ESPO prices increased, while Oman, Victory, and Duri prices decreased. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI spreads decreased, while Brent - WTI spread increased. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened significantly. - Other Assets: The US dollar index decreased, the S&P 500 increased, the DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. - Inventory and Operation: US commercial crude oil inventory, strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory increased, while Cushing's inventory decreased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [6]. - Fuel Oil: - Futures Prices: FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil prices decreased. - Spot Prices: Most fuel oil spot prices remained stable, with some increasing slightly and the Russian M100 arrival price decreasing. - Spreads: Singapore and China's high - low sulfur spreads, LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST spreads decreased. - Platts and Inventory: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory decreased [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Supply: US API crude oil imports from October 4 - 10 decreased. Mexico's Pemex reached a 4.5% salary - increase agreement with the union. Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars [8][9]. - Demand: India's oil import value in September reached 1.4 billion dollars [10]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory from October 4 - 10 increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest increase since February 7, 2025. API refined oil inventory decreased more than expected, and API gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly. Crude oil and fuel - related warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged [11]. - Market Information: India promised to stop importing Russian oil, but implementation will take time. US Bank warned that Brent oil prices may fall below $50. The UK will impose sanctions on Russian oil companies. OPEC Secretary - General predicted that oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure by 2050 [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories [15][17][19] etc.