Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of divergence due to both supply and demand increases. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation within the 72,000 - 75,000 point range in the near term. The supply - demand contradiction is not yet intensified, and price breakthrough requires new driving factors [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data: On October 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,720 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the past week. The basis weakened to 180 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 16.68% to 225,238 lots [1][5]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity remained at a high level of 71.3%. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained stable at 6,370 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for power batteries was strong, with new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in September increasing by 16% year - on - year to 1.307 million vehicles, and the penetration rate reaching 58.5%. The price of ternary materials significantly rebounded, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for four consecutive weeks to 134,801 tons, and the registered warrants also decreased, indicating that the industry chain has entered the active de - stocking stage [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased slightly by 40 yuan to 72,720 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.06%. The basis weakened by 40 yuan to 180 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 18.18%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 45,089 lots to 225,238 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,900 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type ternary materials increased by 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotation: On October 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,037 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,750 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged. The lithium carbonate futures price continued the oscillating trend, with the main contract in the range of 72,200 - 73,800 yuan/ton. In October, the supply is expected to increase steadily, but the strong demand in the power and energy - storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, resulting in a phased supply - tight situation [6]. - Downstream Consumption: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.878 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 1.489 million, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.8%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 10.433 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [7]. - Industry News: On September 20, the mechanical and electrical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu was completed and put into operation. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, indicating its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [8][9].
供需双增加大市场分歧，碳酸锂仍在当前区间博弈
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-16 06:26