碳酸锂数据日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, there may be a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. - The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increasing tender volume indicates strong installation demand. However, the overall increase in supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,000 yuan/ton with no change; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 72,660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 72,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 72,960 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 72,940 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 72,800 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 828 yuan/ton with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1025 yuan/ton, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1725 yuan/ton, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6025 yuan/ton, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7125 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,530 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 155,800 yuan/ton with an increase of 1200 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 128,500 yuan/ton with an increase of 3000 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 132,650 yuan/ton with an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is 280 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 134,801 tons with a decrease of 2024 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,747 tons with an increase of 1255 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 59,765 tons with a decrease of 1128 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,290 tons with a decrease of 2150 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 33,076 tons with a decrease of 2104 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,330 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1394 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,178 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 5225 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3].