兴业期货日度策略：2025.09.25-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Long - term bullish: Stock index, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel (with a relatively advantageous selling put option strategy), lithium carbonate, iron ore (relatively strong in the black metal industry chain), hot - rolled coil (with a short - long position with a stop - loss line), floating glass [3][5][6] - Bearish: Treasury bonds, alumina, polyolefin, cotton [3][5][10] - Cautious bullish: Iron ore, coke, floating glass [6][8] - Cautious bearish: Soda ash [8] - Sideways: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, crude oil, methanol, rubber [6][8][10] 2. Core Views - The positive factors in the technology sector continue to ferment, and the market sentiment is positive. The technology - growth style of the stock market is expected to continue. The long position of IC can be held. The bond market continues to be weak, and the long - term callback risk is more significant [3]. - For precious metals, although the short - term Fed rate - cut expectations fluctuate, the long - term logic of rising gold and silver prices remains clear. The long positions of gold AU2512 and silver AG2512 can be held, and new orders can be added on dips [5]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the supply of copper is tight, and the upward trend may continue before the holiday; the price of aluminum has a solid support, and the short - position pattern of alumina is clear; the fundamentals of nickel are weak, but there is support at the bottom [5]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong, and there is support at the bottom of the price; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are expected to continue the sideways - weak pattern [6]. - In the steel and ore sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a sideways pattern, and iron ore is relatively strong. The strategies for each variety vary [6][8]. - For coal and coke, the price of coking coal is expected to rise slightly, and the price of coke is in a sideways pattern [8]. - In the soda ash and glass sector, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in a range, and floating glass can be bought on dips [8]. - Crude oil rebounds in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances, but there is still pressure from oversupply [8]. - Methanol is in a sideways pattern, and the focus is on the change in arrival volume; polyolefin is likely to decline, and the strategy of going long on the L - PP spread can be considered; cotton continues to be weak; rubber is in a sideways pattern [10]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - The positive factors in the technology sector continue to ferment, and the market sentiment is positive. On Wednesday, the stock index opened low and closed high. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index reached new stage highs. The turnover of the A - share market was 2.35 trillion yuan (previous value: 2.52 trillion yuan). The electronics, power equipment, and new energy sectors led the gains, while the banking, coal, and communication sectors declined slightly. In the stock index futures, IC and IM rose more than the spot index, and the basis strengthened significantly. The long - term positive factors in the chip and AI chains are numerous, and the technology - growth style of the stock market is expected to continue. The long position of IC can be held [3]. - The bond market continues to be weak, and the redemption concern intensifies. Due to factors such as the end of the month, the capital cost has tightened slightly. The stock market is strong, and the bond - stock seesaw effect has weakened. The bond market's cautious sentiment has further increased, and the long - term callback risk is more significant [3]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - Gold: Although the short - term Fed rate - cut expectations have cooled marginally, the long - term logic of rising gold prices remains clear. The long - position pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the US PCE and GDP data and their guidance on the Fed's rate - cut expectations [5]. - Silver: Against the background of the expansion of global government debt and the weakening of the US dollar in the long - term cycle, the long - term upward logic of silver prices is clear. Considering the Fed's rate - cut and the relatively resilient US economy, the upward elasticity of silver prices may be greater than that of gold. The long - position thinking should be maintained [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the global supply concern has intensified due to the mine accident. The smelting processing fee is expected to be under pressure, and the short - term financial attribute has little impact. The upward trend of copper is expected to continue before the holiday, but the macro - risk of the overseas market during the long holiday should be vigilant [5]. - Aluminum: The price of alumina is under pressure, and the short - position pattern is clear. The price of aluminum has a solid support, and the supply is restricted. The overall trend is easy to rise and difficult to fall [5]. - Nickel: The fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the impact is gradually weakening. There are concerns about the Indonesian mine supply, and there is support at the bottom. Considering the high inventory of refined nickel, the selling put option strategy is relatively advantageous [5]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is transferred from the upstream to the demand side. There is support at the bottom of the price, but the expectation of resource - end disturbances is unclear [6]. - Industrial silicon: The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is insufficient. The inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue the sideways - weak pattern [6]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The fundamentals are relatively loose, the supply - side production control is less than expected, and the demand is difficult to be boosted. The price has limited upside space [6]. - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances stimulate a short - term rebound in oil prices, but there is still pressure from oversupply. It is advisable to sell on rallies after the callback demand is released [8]. - Methanol: The arrival volume has decreased, and both ports and factories are destocking. The supply is the main factor affecting the price, and attention should be paid to the change in arrival volume [10]. - Polyolefin: The production enterprise inventory has decreased, but the social inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price of PP has a large premium, and it is likely to decline. The strategy of going long on the L - PP spread can be considered [10]. Steel and Ore - Rebar: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the trading volume is average. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is pressure to destock in October. It is expected to be in a sideways pattern, waiting for policy or fundamental changes [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price has risen slightly, and the trading volume is average. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to be in a sideways pattern, and the short - long position with a stop - loss line can be held [6]. - Iron ore: The demand is stable, and the supply may be affected by the negotiation of long - term agreements. It is expected to be relatively strong in the black metal industry chain, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contract can be adopted [6][8]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The production recovery of origin mines is slow, and the demand for procurement before the holiday is strong. The price is expected to rise slightly [8]. - Coke: The steel mills still have the willingness to replenish inventory before the National Day, and the coking plants promote the first price increase. The price is in a sideways pattern [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The market sentiment is boosted by policies, but the fundamentals are bearish. The futures valuation has reflected the existing negative factors, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1250 - 1350. The strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be adopted [8]. - Floating glass: The market sentiment is boosted by policies, the production - sales rate has increased significantly, and the price has risen sharply. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, the valuation is low, and it can be bought on dips [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply of new cotton is expected to be abundant, and the demand has improved marginally but is still insufficient compared with the same period last year. The price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. - Rubber: The demand for rubber has increased as expected, and the impact of typhoon weather on rubber tapping is not significant. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to be in a sideways pattern. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas [10].