光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251016

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea,纯碱, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: Demand shortage continues to suppress the price trends of urea futures and spot. The futures price shows signs of stopping decline but lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to view it from a bottom - oscillating perspective, and pay attention to the results of Indian tenders, export policy dynamics, northern weather, and spot trading conditions [1] - 纯碱: The driving force in the soda ash market remains limited, and the futures price is mainly in low - level consolidation. Pay attention to the policy orientation of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee next week, macro - sentiment, and this week's inventory data [1] - Glass: The market sentiment of glass remains weak. After consecutive days of decline, the futures price may stop falling, but the rebound driving force is still insufficient. Pay attention to external factors such as policy orientation and macro - sentiment, as well as spot trading volume and this week's inventory data [1] Group 3: Market Information Summaries Urea - On October 15, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 6493, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day, with 21 valid forecasts [4] - On October 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons from the previous working day and 0.53 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.90%, a decrease of 6.26 percentage points from 85.16% in the same period last year [4] - On October 15, the spot prices of small - granular urea in various domestic regions remained unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 1540 yuan/ton [4] - As of October 15, the inventory of urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons (+11.88%) from last week [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On October 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7856, a decrease of 26 from the previous trading day, with 2371 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] - On October 15, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [7] - On October 15, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.28%, remaining stable day - on - day [8] - On October 15, the average price of the float glass market was 1249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton day - on - day. The daily output of the industry was 16.13 tons, remaining unchanged day - on - day [8] Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads of different contracts, and the price differences between related commodities of urea, soda ash, and glass [10][11][13] - All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [19] Group 5: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won relevant honors [23] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [23]