工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On October 15, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.12%, and the position decreasing by 18,484 lots to 144,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan remained stable at 9,557 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 240 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 50,865 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.37%, and the position decreasing by 2,224 lots to 79,164 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 1,745 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors of national regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, leading to a divergence in the trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the main variables are concentrated on the supply side. Large-scale production shutdowns are about to begin in the southwest. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations can be carried out at high levels for far-month contracts. There are also reports of the registration of a production capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November. Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production has continued to rise. Coupled with lower-than-expected bidding and a decline in domestic component production schedules, the overall terminal market remains weak. After November, major manufacturers will carry out maintenance, and the supply-demand pattern may improve fundamentally. The market is waiting for the meeting results and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment building up, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase due to news guidance [2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends on October 15. The market is affected by rumors of national regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, and the supply side is the main variable. Attention should be paid to production resumption in the north, and short-selling operations can be considered for far-month contracts. The supply-demand pattern may improve after November [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,520 yuan/ton on October 14 to 8,570 yuan/ton on October 15. The spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 410 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 51,197, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 251,405 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 49,990 yuan/ton on October 14 to 50,865 yuan/ton on October 15. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 2,520 yuan/ton to 1,745 yuan/ton [3]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16]. - Inventory: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][19][21]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [24][26][31]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].