光大期货软商品日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure. ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound on Wednesday, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the U.S. government shutdown causes a data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply is at a 10 - year high and the listing is earlier, creating short - term supply - demand imbalance. However, the cotton supply - demand pattern has narrowed compared to last year, and cotton prices may improve after the supply pressure eases [1]. - Sugar is in a weak oscillation state. The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. Domestic sugar spot prices are continuously decreasing, and the market lacks short - term drivers. Attention should be paid to the support at integer levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The main contract positions increased by 12,867 to 580,900 hands. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,400 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan. In the international market, the U.S. government shutdown leads to a data vacuum, and the U.S. cotton price is in a low - level oscillation. In the domestic market, new cotton supply is large and early, causing short - term imbalance, but the annual supply - demand pattern has improved [1]. - Sugar: The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. The 2025/26 season's 4 - 9 monthly average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, down 5.5 tons. Domestic sugar spot prices are decreasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 5; the main basis was 1404, down 86. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,513 yuan per ton, down 85, and the national average was 14,674 yuan per ton, down 81 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 29, up 3; the main basis was 387, down 16. The Nanning spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3.3 Market Information - Cotton: On October 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 2,773, down 50, with 96 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,513 yuan per ton, Henan 14,755 yuan per ton, Shandong 14,676 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 14,868 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, up 0.1, and the inventory was 26.1, unchanged. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged, and the inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - Sugar: On October 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 8,438, down 50, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, as well as the 1% tariff quota internal - external spreads of cotton and the China Cotton Price Index [6][9][11][14][17]. 3.5 Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant honors [21].