蛋白数据日报-20251016

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the soybean and soybean meal market, covering supply, demand, and inventory aspects [6][7] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - On October 15, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 13, down 15; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 83, down 35; in Rizhao it was 63, down 15; in Dongguan it was down 15; in Zhanjiang it was 53, down 15; in Fangcheng it was 33, down 15; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 127, down 15; MJ - 5 was 177, up 3 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 560; RM1 - 5 was 59 [5] Other Data - The US - dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0868; the盘面榨利 was - 215.00 yuan/ton; the 2025 import soybean盘面毛利 was 285 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Supply Analysis - Due to less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA may still be lowered; recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to harvest progress; affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress was 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate was 8.2%, much higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is undetermined [6][7] Group 4: Demand Analysis - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the breeding industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and downstream spot goods transactions are good [7] Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; this week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased and is currently at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Due to the repeated emotions in Sino - US trade negotiations and the poor profit of domestic ship - buying and crushing, the ship - buying progress is expected to be affected. In the short term, limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic inventory, the market is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [7]