乙二醇日报：供应叠加库存压力，乙二醇缺乏利多支撑-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ethylene glycol market is currently facing supply and inventory pressures, lacking bullish support. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern, with the upside limited by high inventory and weak demand, and the downside supported by cost differences. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and coal-based plant maintenance trends [1][2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased slightly from 4,061 yuan/ton on October 14th to 4,057 yuan/ton on October 15th, a decline of 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened, and the basis narrowed from 69 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, indicating a slight relief in futures discount pressure but still cautious market sentiment [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract increased by 2,469 lots to 339,900 lots, while the trading volume dropped significantly by 25.66% (a decrease of 39,900 lots), showing intensified differences between long and short positions but decreased capital activity and increased market waiting sentiment [1]. - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose slightly from 70.5% to 71.04%, mainly due to a 0.9-percentage-point increase in the oil-based operating rate to 76.49%, while the coal-based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The profits of various ethylene-based production routes generally improved, but the coal-based profit decreased by 76 yuan/ton to 410.87 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas-based and associated gas-based production also decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. Cost pressure may suppress the release of non-oil-based production capacity [1]. - Demand Side: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand did not show significant improvement, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The gap between high polyester operating rates and low weaving loads persisted, and demand transmission was不畅 [2]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, reaching a recent high, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 165,000 tons, indicating concentrated port arrivals but uneven regional distribution and a marginal increase in overall inventory pressure [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 25.66%. The position increased by 0.73%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.24% [4]. - Profit: The profits of ethylene-based production routes generally increased, with the SD oxidation method increasing by 10.37%, the SHELL oxidation method increasing by 14.35%, etc. The coal-based profit decreased by 15.67%, the natural gas-based profit decreased by 3.13%, and the associated gas-based profit decreased by 12.25% [4]. - Operating Rate: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.77%, mainly due to a 1.20% increase in the oil-based operating rate. The coal-based, polyester, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The East China main port inventory increased by 6.71%, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 7.30% [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - October 15th Market: In the morning, the negotiation focus of the East China US dollar market rebounded slightly, with November shipments negotiated in the range of 485 - 488 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated little. The mainstream market focus moved down, the South China market seller quotes were lowered, and the market transactions were light. The overnight crude oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The Shaanxi region's ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable [5]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics, and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].