Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish tendency with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook and poor trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish view and low trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend and limited trading opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short-term trend and poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is under pressure, with crude oil having a mid-term bearish trend, and other energy products also facing various supply and demand challenges and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined further, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.79% intraday. Uncertainty in Sino-US trade and increased expected supply-demand surplus are pressuring the oil market. The mid-term bearish view remains unchanged, and short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US talks during the APAC meeting at the end of the month [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is following the decline of crude oil. High-sulfur fuel oil is relatively stable in the short term but faces multiple pressures in the medium term. Strategies include shorting high-sulfur cracking spreads and widening high-low sulfur spreads after geopolitical tensions ease. Low-sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, and attention should be paid to the impact of increased port fees on trade and demand [2] Asphalt - The asphalt supply-demand remains in a tight balance. It follows the decline of crude oil but with limited跌幅, and the cracking spread rebounds. There is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation by the end of 2025, and the fundamental support is expected to weaken in the later Q4, with continued pressure from the cost side [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG is resistant to decline at a low level. The US propane export volume has decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. There is increased supply pressure from overseas associated gas, and downstream procurement is mainly for刚需. The demand in the combustion end is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not significantly improved [3]
国投期货能源日报-20251016
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-16 06:42