有色商品日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while in China, it fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot import window remained closed. High copper prices made downstream buyers cautious. The market is expected to remain cautious until substantial progress is made in Sino - US trade. Copper prices may stay at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina is generally bearish but may be bottoming out. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October." Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, but whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.3%, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.11%. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The Fed Chairman's speech and the Fed's Beige Book have an impact on the market. High copper prices lead to downstream caution. The market is cautious about Sino - US trade. Copper prices may be high but are unlikely to exceed previous domestic highs [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices fell, and aluminum prices showed different trends. Alumina production capacity at high costs has turned to losses and stopped production. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel had different price movements. Nickel ore is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy. The nickel - stainless steel and new - energy industries have different trends, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and inventory decreased [3]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices showed different trends, and inventory increased slightly. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - Nickel: The price of some nickel products increased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - Zinc: The price of zinc decreased, and inventory increased [6]. - Tin: The price of tin decreased, and inventory showed different trends [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in non - ferrous metal research [50][51].