聚酯链日报：成本支撑趋弱叠加库存压力显现，聚酯原料弱势震荡-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester raw material market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend due to weakening cost support and emerging inventory pressures. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile state under the pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and inventory backlog" [2][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - PX & PTA: On October 15, the PX main contract closed at 6,312.0 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -33.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,422.0 yuan/ton, also down 0.41%, with a basis of -32.0 yuan/ton. The supply side has marginal contraction but long - term pressure. The demand side shows weak traditional peak - season demand, and the inventory is starting to accumulate [3][4]. - Polyester: On October 15, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,050.0 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day. Terminal demand is weakly stable but shows no obvious improvement. High inventory across the industry chain strongly suppresses prices, and the polyester industry chain is expected to remain weakly volatile [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.41% to 6,312 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 4.51%. The PX spot price in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price increased by 0.93% [6]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.41% to 4,422 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 16.71%. The PTA spot price in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged. The PTA import profit increased by 0.25% [6]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.17% to 6,050 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 15.90%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.24% [6]. - Other Products: The price of the Brent crude oil main contract increased by 0.31%, and the price of the WTI main contract decreased by 0.49%. Some products such as CFR Japanese naphtha and ethylene glycol remained unchanged in price [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Macro - dynamics: On October 15, some officials expected two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year. The Fed Chair Powell mentioned issues such as tight money - market liquidity and employment risks. The most crowded trade shifted from long US stock giants to long gold. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast and expected a significant narrowing of the supply gap next year [8]. - Supply - demand (Demand): On October 15, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 776.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.08%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 607.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 172.0 million meters [9].