有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation changes bring significant short - term impacts on the non - ferrous sector. After the market quickly reflects the negative news, it may return to the original fluctuation logic. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term, and one can consider bargain - hunting for strong varieties [14]. - The market's concern about the US imposing tariffs on copper imports may rise, which will intensify the siphon effect of the US market and highlight the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. The supply pressure of copper cannot be alleviated, while the domestic macro - level in the fourth quarter is expected to boost copper demand. For Shanghai copper, one can try to gradually buy on dips [4][15]. - The zinc market is affected by trade situations and profit - taking. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and one can buy on dips [15][16]. - The aluminum industry chain shows different trends. Aluminum is in a state of shock consolidation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; alumina is bearish, and one can hold a short - biased view; the regenerative aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap supply, and short positions can be reduced [6][16]. - The tin market has a slight improvement in demand during the peak season, but high prices suppress spot trading. One can increase short positions moderately on rallies [7]. - The lead market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations, and one can continue to consider the option double - selling strategy in a wider range [9]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by trade situations. Nickel is in a weak shock, and one can be slightly bullish on dips; stainless steel is in a shock pattern, and one can buy on dips [10][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The change in Sino - US trade relations leads to an increase in risk - aversion demand, and risk assets fluctuate significantly. The non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having relatively large fluctuations and other metals being more cautious in consolidation. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in October with a high probability [13]. - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal - Copper: Concerns about US tariffs may rise, supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Buy on dips, with support at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and resistance at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [4][15]. - Zinc: After a short - term rise, profit - taking and trade situations cause adjustments. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound, with support at 21500 - 21600 and resistance at 22400 - 22500. Buy on dips [15][16]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: Supply capacity changes slightly, and demand shows seasonal characteristics with internal differentiation. It is in shock consolidation, with support at 20200 - 20500 and resistance at 21000 - 21300. Reduce short positions [16]. - Alumina: Production changes little, and it is bearish, with support at 2600 - 2700 and resistance at 3000 - 3200. Hold a short - biased view [6][16]. - Regenerative Aluminum Alloy: Supported by tight scrap supply, it moves in tandem with Shanghai aluminum. Reduce short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and resistance at 20800 - 21000 [6]. - Tin: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and raw material shortages, and demand improvement is limited. Increase short positions moderately on rallies, with support at 260000 - 270000 and resistance at 290000 - 300000 [7][16]. - Lead: Supply is affected by production cuts and maintenance, and demand recovers after the holiday. It is in range - bound fluctuations, with support at 16500 - 16600 and resistance at 17000 - 17200. Consider the option double - selling strategy [9][17]. - Nickel: Supply is stable in the short term, and demand slows down. It is in weak shock, with support at 118000 - 120000 and resistance at 125000 - 128000. Be slightly bullish on dips [10][17]. - Stainless Steel: Supply growth slows down, and demand recovers but remains weak. It is in a shock pattern, with support at 12500 - 12600 and resistance at 13000 - 13200. Buy on dips [10][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - Futures Closing Prices and Changes - Copper closed at 85800 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. - Zinc closed at 22015 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. - Aluminum closed at 20910 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. - Alumina closed at 2797 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. - Tin closed at 281710 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. - Lead closed at 17110 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. - Nickel closed at 121180 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - Stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. - Cast aluminum alloy closed at 20410 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [18][19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show different net long - short positions and changes, which are affected by factors such as non - main - force funds, main - force long - position increases or decreases, and main - force short - position increases [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - Spot Prices and Changes - Copper spot prices range from 85475 - 85600 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.53% - 0.54%. - Zinc spot prices range from 21850 - 22020 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.81% - 0.95%. - Aluminum spot prices range from 20820 - 20900 yuan/ton, with little change. - Alumina spot prices range from 2974 yuan/ton (domestic average) to 320 US dollars/ton (Australia FOB), with a decline of about 0.23% for the domestic average [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides a series of charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and their relationships, which helps to analyze the supply - demand situation and price trends of each metal [26][30][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report presents a series of charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and price differences between different contracts, which helps to find arbitrage opportunities [64][65][67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides a series of charts related to the options of each non - ferrous metal, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio, which helps to analyze the option market and formulate option strategies [80][82][84].