养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: The current inventory in China continues to accumulate with sufficient supply, but in the fourth - quarter consumption peak, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. Short - term prices may fluctuate due to sufficient inventory, while the medium - to - long - term outlook is positive [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The market is bearish due to the expected relaxation of Canadian rapeseed - related policies. However, domestic supply will gradually tighten, and enterprises are strongly willing to hold prices. It is recommended to wait and see or use options to protect positions [3]. - Palm Oil: The price of the main contract dropped on Wednesday. The medium - to - long - term price outlook is positive, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2: Global soybean production areas have good weather, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to short lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For bean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price is weak. Although there is limited upside drive, the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market has a bearish background. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5]. - Soybean No. 1: With new domestic soybeans on the market and active downstream purchases, it is recommended to go long lightly [6]. - Peanuts: The new - season output increase expectation is discounted. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - Hogs: The spot price has rebounded after falling. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on the 2607 contract after capacity reduction is confirmed [7][8]. - Eggs: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: Bean No. 1 is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanuts are expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Oils: Soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization [11]. - Proteins: Soybean meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to hold short positions; Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Energy and By - products: Corn and corn starch are expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11]. - Livestock Farming: Hogs and eggs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, while hogs and eggs are recommended to conduct positive arbitrage at low prices [12]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For some oil and protein varieties, it is recommended to conduct long or short operations, and for oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to go long [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various varieties in different sectors [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It shows inventory and operating rate data for various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and their related products [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil [17]. - Weekly Data: It includes data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - Daily Data: It shows the daily price changes of hogs and eggs in different regions [19][20]. - Weekly Data: It provides key weekly data on hogs and eggs, including price, cost, profit, and production - related data [21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs): It includes charts of futures and spot prices, and other related data of hogs and eggs [25][28]. - Oils and Oilseeds: It includes charts of production, inventory, import, and price spread data for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [33][44][53]. - Feed: It includes charts of price, inventory, consumption, and profit data for corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [59][66][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties [95].